Mr Jubril Animashaun

(Former)

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Overview

 I completed my undergraduate study in Agricultural economics at the University of Ilorin, Nigeria where I was the University's Student Union President and also emerged as the best student in the department. Subsequently, I was retained as academic staff and a lecturer in the Department and finished my MSc in Agricultural economics (2012). I am a recipient of the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Merit Scholarship award for PhD, the Economics Studentship Award from the University of Manchester, and the Staff Development Award from University of Ilorin for my PhD in Economics.

I am a member of the Environmental and Resource Economics (ERE) Research Group RAG at The University of Manchester.

Supervisors

Prof Ada Wossink

 Dr Ron Chan

SELECTED AWARDS AND HONOURS

  • Islamic Development Bank Scholarship (PhD scholarship)                    2015-2018
  • Phd/Mres Studentship, University of Manchester, UK                            2018/2019
  • Staff Development Award, University of Ilorin, Nigeria                         2015-2019
  • COWBELL/JAMB Scholarship Outstanding Award

              (Top 20 out of almost a million candidates in Nigeria)                     2004/2005

  • Merit Award, Student Union President, University of Ilorin, Nigeria       2008/2009

 

WORKING PAPERS

Colonialism, Institutional Quality and the Resource Curse (Job Market, based on a chapter from PhD thesis)

Abstract: We examine the enduring impact of the 16th to 19th-century European colonial practises of resource exploitation on the inherited institutional quality to explain the resource curse in oil-rich countries. A primary objective of European colonialism was to expand the economic base of the metropole through the imposition of institutions that favoured rent-seeking. If inherited, such structures can constitute a significant reason for the resource curse and why post-colonial institutional reform is hard. We also condition the oil abundance estimates on geologic features associated with depth and depth (squared) of oil fields. We estimate a 2-Step GMM model using data for 69 countries with at least a discovery of giant oil reserves from 1960-2015. Our results show that oil-rich countries without the experience of European colonisation have better institutions and more oil discoveries. Second, conditional on the colonial heritage, moments of lagged income and geologic features of oil formation, institutional quality helps to reverse the resource curse. Because giant oil discoveries did not drive the 16th to 19th-century European colonialism, our findings offer an in-depth understanding of the resource curse and suggest promising ways for reforms that undo some colonial legacies on education and social trust.

Political Accountability, Information Asymmetry and the Resource Curse: Evidence from the Night-time lights (based on a chapter from PhD thesis)

Abstract: In this paper, we present two mechanisms for understanding the resource curse from a political economy perspective. First, the boom from giant oil discoveries raises the value of being in power and provides incumbent politicians with incentives to inflate performance through the manipulation of GDP statistics to remain in office. Second, the competition for anticipated rents makes democracy less effective as a measure of accountability that supports growth in the long run. To provide evidence, we use the variation in nighttime lights to identify economic growth and use human right protection as an alternative measure of political accountability. To identify GDP manipulation, we exploit the time lag it requires before the announcement of giant oil discovery causes the GDP to contribute to nighttime lights growth. We estimate Dynamic Panel models for 157 countries from 1992 to 2008 with controls for year and time fixed effects and one-year lag GDP on growth. Our baseline results show that in the long run, the contribution of democracy to GDP reduces by 44% with the announcement of giant oil discovery. GDP per capita is inflated by about 2% in oil-rich countries in the year of discovery relative to the year before discovery. Third, discovery predicts a more negative effect on growth-based nighttime lights than GDP-based growth, especially in countries with a weak democracy. Fourth, human rights protection contribute to growth, and the effect does not depend on oil discovery. Fifth, increasing nonresource tax improves human rights protection.

Income and Child Mortality in Oil-Rich Countries: Evidence from Oil-Price shocks and European Colonial Legacy (based on a chapter from PhD thesis)

Abstract: We investigate the impact of changes in income on child mortality in oil-rich countries. The health-economics literature does not accept a direct causal effect from income to child health. We estimate the causal effect of aggregate GDP per capita on child mortality in 99 heterogeneous, oil-rich countries from 1960 to 2010 with a Fixed Effect (FE) Instrumental variable (IV) estimator. We condition income per capita to shocks from time-series variation in global oil-prices interacted with cross-sectional variation in oil discoveries and a binary variable to capture 16-19th century European colonialism. In the first stage, we find a significant correlation between oil-price shock and income, but the experience of colonialism reduces the magnitude. In the second stage and across all specifications, we find a statistically insignificant impact of income on child mortality. Our findings document an additional aspect of the resource curse: in many resource-rich countries, the expected benefits from resource-wealth hardly translate to significant improvement in child mortality through income. On the other hand, our results show that improving female labour participation helps in reducing child mortality.

Economic Shocks, Oil-Price Volatility and Household Welfare

Abstract: We evaluate the impact of oil-price volatility as a source of macroeconomic shock on household welfare in Nigeria. Nigeria is Africa’s top oil producer, and revenue from crude oil accounts for over 90% of the government’s revenue. In times of shocks, policy interventions aimed at easing shocks require information about heterogeneous household preferences and vulnerabilities, and the consumption sets affected by shocks; otherwise, unintended beneficiaries (the non-poor) will be the ones to benefit. We estimate an incomplete household food expenditure model and separate the unpredictable (residuals) from the predictable components. Then we estimate the impact of oil-price volatility on the square of the log of the unobservable (residuals) component. We use the nationally representative Nigerian General Household Survey (GHS) collected between 2010 and 2016 and comprises of about 5,000 randomly selected households. We measure crude oil-price volatility with the change in the Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX). We find that in times of shocks, households’ ability to smooth consumption decline as shocks become persistent. Households located in urban areas, with a female as the head and with more children are more vulnerable to consumption volatility.

The Persistence of Colonial British Tax Structure on Political and Economic Outcomes in Nigeria

Abstract This project proposes to examine the long-run political and economic development arising from the colonial investment in tax capacities. For empirical evidence, it will use the experimental settings of the colonial British administration in Northern and Southern Nigeria. Colonial administration in the Northern protectorate was built on a decentralised system of an indirect rule that incorporated native authorities in administration and tax collection. The Southern protectorate was on a direct colonial rule characterised by investment in tax capacities with little intermediation from native authorities. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design that exploits the geographic coverage of households and communities along the Northern-Southern protectorate boundary, the projects will investigate if colonial investment in tax capacities deepened institutionalised governance that subsequently crowded in local cooperation and collective action and if this makes households and communities in the South more able to organise for public goods redistribution and to experience better economic outcomes today.

 CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS

 2020

  • Political Accountability Information Asymmetry and the Resource Curse. Paper to be presented at the 2020 RES conference organised the Royal Economic Society to be held at Queens University Belfast in April 2020. 
  • Colonialism, Institutional Quality and the Resource Curse. Paper to be presented at the 2020 Annual Conference of the Economic History Society to be held at St Catherine's College, University of Oxford, 17-19 April 2020.
  • Infant Mortality in Oil-Rich Countries: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks and European-Colonial Legacy. Invited paper to be presented at the 2020 Conference of the Centre for the Studies of African Economies (CSAE) Department of Economics, University of Oxford, U.K. March 2020. 

 2019

  • Colonialism, Institutional Quality and the Resource Curse. Paper presented at the 24th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists held in Manchester, June 2019.
  • Political Accountability Information Asymmetry and the Resource Curse. Paper presented at the 2019 NWSSDTP PhD conference held at the University of Lancaster, UK in May 2019. 

 2018

  • Colonialism, Institutional Quality and the Resource Curse. Paper presented at the 2018 Conference of the Centre for the Studies of African Economies (CSAE) Department of Economics, University of Oxford UK, March, 2018.
  • Land asset and food insecurity in gender-segregated rural households in Bangladesh. Paper presented at the 2018 International Conference of Agricultural Economics (ICAE) Conference in Vancouver, BC, July 28 - August 2, 2018.

 MEMBERSHIP OF LEARNED PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES

  •  Economic History Society (EHS)
  • The Econometric Society (ES)                      
  • Royal Economic Society (RES)
  • European Association of Environmental and Resource Economics (EAERE)
  • Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA)
  • International Association of Agricultural Economics  (IAAE)
  • African Association of Agricultural Economics (AAAE)
  • African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)

 TEACHING EXPERIENCE at the University of Manchester 2016-2019

GTA Alliance Manchester Business School

  • BMAN 10001 (Principles of Microeconomics) 2019

GTA Department of Economics

  • ECON 101172 (Microeconomic Analysis 2) 2019
  • ECON10221 (Microeconomics 1)  2018
  • ECON 10331 (Microeconomics 1)   2018
  • ECON20352 (Microeconomics IIB) 2017-2018, 2016-2017

Contact

Economics

School of Social Science

The University of Manchester

3rd Floor, Arthur Lewis Building

Oxford Road

Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

Email: jubril.animashaun@manchester.ac.uk; reals4u@yahoo.com 

Related information

Publications

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