Chronic Poverty Concepts and Measures: An Application to Kazakhstan

UoM administered thesis: Phd

  • Authors:
  • Alma Kudebayeva


This thesis explores the concepts and measurements of chronic poverty, with application to Kazakhstan. A rigorous analysis of different approaches in the measurement of poverty and chronic poverty is presented in this study. Five matching techniques have been applied for the construction of unintended panel data based on KHBS 2001-2009. The substantial test of reliability, representativeness and robustness of the constructed panel data has examined. The attrition biases of the longitudinal data have been studied rigorously. The appropriate equivalence scale has been determined through regression analysis to the Kazakhstan HBS. The sensitivity of conventional and chronic poverty measures to various poverty lines and equivalence scales studied in this thesis. The stochastic dominance analysis of per adult equivalent consumption expenditures has been presented. The chronic poverty measures and determinants of chronically and transient poor have been estimated. It illustrates that the main correlates of chronic poverty are education, employment status of the head of household, household composition, the ownership of assets such as a dwelling other than main dwelling, a car, access to water in the house and location. The correlates of transient poverty are similar to chronic poverty; however some of them have opposite signs, for example the ethnicity of the head of household, household compositions, an ownership of a dwelling other than main dwelling, location in urban area and repayments of loan in 2008. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition analysis of the gap in consumption expenditures between chronically and transient poor, chronically poor and non-poor explains the differences through returns to endowments. Poverty transitions analysis illustrate improvement in poverty dynamics in later period of the study in 2006-2009. Long durations of poverty prevail among singles with children and couples with children. Poverty exit rates are higher than poverty entry rates for the whole period of 2001-2009. The multivariate hazard regression models are estimated to examine differences in people's experience of poverty over a period of time. For individuals who enter poverty, the total span of time that they spend in poverty consequently depends on both the chances of exit from poverty and the chances of re-entry to poverty. The results confirm the negative duration dependence of the hazards of poverty exit and re-entry for longer lengths of state. The only factor significantly positive influence on poverty exit is a location in Almaty. Many correlates of the model estimation have the same signs for the hazard rate of poverty exit and re-entries. These facts mean that these factors are common for transient poor, who are moving in and out poverty in given period of time. As defined before the existence of children under age six will increase the hazard rate of poverty re-entry.


Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
Award date1 Aug 2015