Background: Research has highlighted the importance of recovery as defined by the service user, and suggests a link to negative emotion, although little is known about the role of negative emotion in predicting subjective recovery. Aims: To investigate longitudinal predictors of variability in recovery scores with a focus on the role of negative emotion. Method: Participants (n=110) with experience of psychosis completed measures of psychiatric symptoms, social functioning, subjective recovery, depression, hopelessness and selfesteem at baseline and 6 months later. Path analysis was used to examine predictive factors for recovery and negative emotion. Results: Subjective recovery scores were predicted by negative emotion, positive self-esteem and hopelessness, and to a lesser extent by symptoms and functioning. Current recovery score was not predicted by past recovery score after accounting for past symptoms, current hopelessness and current positive self-esteem. Conclusions: Psychosocial factors and negative emotion appear to be the strongest longitudinal predictors of variation in subjective recovery, rather than psychiatric symptoms.