Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5-2 degrees CCitation formats

  • External authors:
  • O Y Edelenbosch
  • C Wilson
  • R Freeman
  • D E H J Gernaat
  • Paul Gilbert
  • E W Littleton
  • Michael Traut
  • D P van Vuuren
  • N E Vaughan
  • C Le Quéré

Standard

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5-2 degrees C. / Sharmina, Maria; Edelenbosch, O Y ; Wilson, C; Freeman, R ; Gernaat, D E H J ; Gilbert, Paul; Larkin, Alice; Littleton, E W; Traut, Michael; Vuuren, D P van ; Vaughan, N E; Wood, Ruth ; Le Quéré, C .

In: Climate Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4, 24.01.2021, p. 455-474.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Harvard

Sharmina, M, Edelenbosch, OY, Wilson, C, Freeman, R, Gernaat, DEHJ, Gilbert, P, Larkin, A, Littleton, EW, Traut, M, Vuuren, DPV, Vaughan, NE, Wood, R & Le Quéré, C 2021, 'Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5-2 degrees C', Climate Policy, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 455-474. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430

APA

Sharmina, M., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Wilson, C., Freeman, R., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Gilbert, P., Larkin, A., Littleton, E. W., Traut, M., Vuuren, D. P. V., Vaughan, N. E., Wood, R., & Le Quéré, C. (2021). Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5-2 degrees C. Climate Policy, 21(4), 455-474. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430

Vancouver

Author

Sharmina, Maria ; Edelenbosch, O Y ; Wilson, C ; Freeman, R ; Gernaat, D E H J ; Gilbert, Paul ; Larkin, Alice ; Littleton, E W ; Traut, Michael ; Vuuren, D P van ; Vaughan, N E ; Wood, Ruth ; Le Quéré, C . / Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5-2 degrees C. In: Climate Policy. 2021 ; Vol. 21, No. 4. pp. 455-474.

Bibtex

@article{b7497cbe411449a0a7787d34548f8a3a,
title = "Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5-2 degrees C",
abstract = "Limiting warming to well below 2°Crequires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors{\textquoteright} activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions in the four sectors. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO2 intensity, energy efficiency, demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency. ",
keywords = "Low-carbon transport, demand reduction, emission reduction, emission scenarios, integrated assessment model, low-carbon industry",
author = "Maria Sharmina and Edelenbosch, {O Y} and C Wilson and R Freeman and Gernaat, {D E H J} and Paul Gilbert and Alice Larkin and Littleton, {E W} and Michael Traut and Vuuren, {D P van} and Vaughan, {N E} and Ruth Wood and {Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e}}, C",
note = "Funding Information: The authors are grateful to the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy for funding this research (grant number OJEU - CR16131BEIS). Additionally, E.W.L. acknowledges support from the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/P019951/1). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",
year = "2021",
month = jan,
day = "24",
doi = "10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430",
language = "English",
volume = "21",
pages = "455--474",
journal = "Climate Policy",
issn = "1469-3062",
publisher = "Earthscan ",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5-2 degrees C

AU - Sharmina, Maria

AU - Edelenbosch, O Y

AU - Wilson, C

AU - Freeman, R

AU - Gernaat, D E H J

AU - Gilbert, Paul

AU - Larkin, Alice

AU - Littleton, E W

AU - Traut, Michael

AU - Vuuren, D P van

AU - Vaughan, N E

AU - Wood, Ruth

AU - Le Quéré, C

N1 - Funding Information: The authors are grateful to the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy for funding this research (grant number OJEU - CR16131BEIS). Additionally, E.W.L. acknowledges support from the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/P019951/1). Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2021/1/24

Y1 - 2021/1/24

N2 - Limiting warming to well below 2°Crequires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors’ activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions in the four sectors. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO2 intensity, energy efficiency, demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency.

AB - Limiting warming to well below 2°Crequires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors’ activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions in the four sectors. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO2 intensity, energy efficiency, demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency.

KW - Low-carbon transport

KW - demand reduction

KW - emission reduction

KW - emission scenarios

KW - integrated assessment model

KW - low-carbon industry

U2 - 10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430

DO - 10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430

M3 - Article

VL - 21

SP - 455

EP - 474

JO - Climate Policy

JF - Climate Policy

SN - 1469-3062

IS - 4

ER -