Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertaintiesCitation formats

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Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertainties. / Wakeford, Richard; Puncher, Matthew; Zhang, Wei; Harrison, John.

In: Journal of Radiological Protection, Vol. 37, No. 2, 06.06.2017, p. 506-526.

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Wakeford, Richard ; Puncher, Matthew ; Zhang, Wei ; Harrison, John. / Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertainties. In: Journal of Radiological Protection. 2017 ; Vol. 37, No. 2. pp. 506-526.

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@article{7bfde77c546c4f72b8f6fce293bc8187,
title = "Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertainties",
abstract = "Assessments of risk to a specific population group resulting from internalexposure to a particular radionuclide can be used to assess the reliability of theappropriate International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) dosecoefficients used as a radiation protection device for the specified exposurepathway. An estimate of the uncertainty on the associated risk is important forinforming judgments on reliability; a derived uncertainty factor, UF, is anestimate of the 95{\%} probable geometric difference between the best riskestimate and the nominal risk and is a useful tool for making this assessment.This paper describes the application of parameter uncertainty analysis toquantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to radioiodine bymembers of the public, specifically 1, 10 and 20-year old females from thepopulation of England and Wales. Best estimates of thyroid cancer incidencerisk (lifetime attributable risk) are calculated for ingestion or inhalation of 129Iand 131I, accounting for uncertainties in biokinetic model and cancer riskmodel parameter values. These estimates are compared with the equivalentICRP derived nominal age-, sex- and population-averaged estimates of excess thyroid cancer incidence to obtain UFs. Derived UF values for ingestion orinhalation of 131I for 1 year, 10-year and 20-year olds are around 28, 12 and 6,respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 103 nominal values, and9, 7 and 14, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 60 values.Broadly similar results were obtained for 129I. The uncertainties on risk estimatesare largely determined by uncertainties on risk model parameters ratherthan uncertainties on biokinetic model parameters. An examination of thesensitivity of the results to the risk models and populations used in the calculationsshow variations in the central estimates of risk of a factor of around2–3. It is assumed that the direct proportionality of excess thyroid cancer riskand dose observed at low to moderate acute doses and incorporated in the riskmodels also applies to very small doses received at very low dose rates; theuncertainty in this assumption is considerable, but largely unquantifiable. TheUF values illustrate the need for an informed approach to the use of ICRP doseand risk coefficients.",
author = "Richard Wakeford and Matthew Puncher and Wei Zhang and John Harrison",
year = "2017",
month = "6",
day = "6",
doi = "10.1088/1361-6498/aa6a68",
language = "English",
volume = "37",
pages = "506--526",
journal = "Journal of Radiological Protection",
issn = "0952-4746",
publisher = "IOP Publishing Ltd.",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertainties

AU - Wakeford, Richard

AU - Puncher, Matthew

AU - Zhang, Wei

AU - Harrison, John

PY - 2017/6/6

Y1 - 2017/6/6

N2 - Assessments of risk to a specific population group resulting from internalexposure to a particular radionuclide can be used to assess the reliability of theappropriate International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) dosecoefficients used as a radiation protection device for the specified exposurepathway. An estimate of the uncertainty on the associated risk is important forinforming judgments on reliability; a derived uncertainty factor, UF, is anestimate of the 95% probable geometric difference between the best riskestimate and the nominal risk and is a useful tool for making this assessment.This paper describes the application of parameter uncertainty analysis toquantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to radioiodine bymembers of the public, specifically 1, 10 and 20-year old females from thepopulation of England and Wales. Best estimates of thyroid cancer incidencerisk (lifetime attributable risk) are calculated for ingestion or inhalation of 129Iand 131I, accounting for uncertainties in biokinetic model and cancer riskmodel parameter values. These estimates are compared with the equivalentICRP derived nominal age-, sex- and population-averaged estimates of excess thyroid cancer incidence to obtain UFs. Derived UF values for ingestion orinhalation of 131I for 1 year, 10-year and 20-year olds are around 28, 12 and 6,respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 103 nominal values, and9, 7 and 14, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 60 values.Broadly similar results were obtained for 129I. The uncertainties on risk estimatesare largely determined by uncertainties on risk model parameters ratherthan uncertainties on biokinetic model parameters. An examination of thesensitivity of the results to the risk models and populations used in the calculationsshow variations in the central estimates of risk of a factor of around2–3. It is assumed that the direct proportionality of excess thyroid cancer riskand dose observed at low to moderate acute doses and incorporated in the riskmodels also applies to very small doses received at very low dose rates; theuncertainty in this assumption is considerable, but largely unquantifiable. TheUF values illustrate the need for an informed approach to the use of ICRP doseand risk coefficients.

AB - Assessments of risk to a specific population group resulting from internalexposure to a particular radionuclide can be used to assess the reliability of theappropriate International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) dosecoefficients used as a radiation protection device for the specified exposurepathway. An estimate of the uncertainty on the associated risk is important forinforming judgments on reliability; a derived uncertainty factor, UF, is anestimate of the 95% probable geometric difference between the best riskestimate and the nominal risk and is a useful tool for making this assessment.This paper describes the application of parameter uncertainty analysis toquantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to radioiodine bymembers of the public, specifically 1, 10 and 20-year old females from thepopulation of England and Wales. Best estimates of thyroid cancer incidencerisk (lifetime attributable risk) are calculated for ingestion or inhalation of 129Iand 131I, accounting for uncertainties in biokinetic model and cancer riskmodel parameter values. These estimates are compared with the equivalentICRP derived nominal age-, sex- and population-averaged estimates of excess thyroid cancer incidence to obtain UFs. Derived UF values for ingestion orinhalation of 131I for 1 year, 10-year and 20-year olds are around 28, 12 and 6,respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 103 nominal values, and9, 7 and 14, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 60 values.Broadly similar results were obtained for 129I. The uncertainties on risk estimatesare largely determined by uncertainties on risk model parameters ratherthan uncertainties on biokinetic model parameters. An examination of thesensitivity of the results to the risk models and populations used in the calculationsshow variations in the central estimates of risk of a factor of around2–3. It is assumed that the direct proportionality of excess thyroid cancer riskand dose observed at low to moderate acute doses and incorporated in the riskmodels also applies to very small doses received at very low dose rates; theuncertainty in this assumption is considerable, but largely unquantifiable. TheUF values illustrate the need for an informed approach to the use of ICRP doseand risk coefficients.

U2 - 10.1088/1361-6498/aa6a68

DO - 10.1088/1361-6498/aa6a68

M3 - Article

VL - 37

SP - 506

EP - 526

JO - Journal of Radiological Protection

T2 - Journal of Radiological Protection

JF - Journal of Radiological Protection

SN - 0952-4746

IS - 2

ER -