Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in EuropeCitation formats

  • External authors:
  • Mariësse A E Van Sluisveld
  • Andries F Hof
  • Samuel Carrara
  • Måns Nilsson
  • Karoline Rogge
  • Detlef P Van Vuuren

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Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe. / Van Sluisveld, Mariësse A E; Hof, Andries F; Carrara, Samuel; Geels, Frank W; Nilsson, Måns; Rogge, Karoline; Turnheim, Bruno; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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APA

Van Sluisveld, M. A. E., Hof, A. F., Carrara, S., Geels, F. W., Nilsson, M., Rogge, K., ... Van Vuuren, D. P. (2018). Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.024

Vancouver

Author

Van Sluisveld, Mariësse A E ; Hof, Andries F ; Carrara, Samuel ; Geels, Frank W ; Nilsson, Måns ; Rogge, Karoline ; Turnheim, Bruno ; Van Vuuren, Detlef P. / Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe. In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2018.

Bibtex

@article{7734011e38cf4eda9b2d1cf0cb2f1179,
title = "Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe",
abstract = "A B S T R A C T In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment model-ling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. Conceptual interaction is realised through the development of two contrasting transition narratives on the role of actors in meeting the European Unions' 80{\%} greenhouse gas emission re-duction objective for 2050. The first transition narrative outlines how large-scale innovation trajectories are driven by incumbent actors, whereas the second transition narrative assumes more 'alternative' strategies by new entrants with strong opposition to large-scale technologies. We use the multi-level perspective to draw out plausible storylines on actor positioning and momentum of change for several technological and social niche-innovations in both transition narratives. These storylines are then translated into quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. Although both developed transition pathways align with the European Union's low-carbon objective for 2050, we find that each pathway depicts a substantial departure from systems that are known to date. Future research could focus on further systematic (joint) development of operational links be-tween the two analytical approaches, as well as work on improved representation of demand-oriented solutions in techno-economic modelling.",
author = "{Van Sluisveld}, {Mari{\"e}sse A E} and Hof, {Andries F} and Samuel Carrara and Geels, {Frank W} and M{\aa}ns Nilsson and Karoline Rogge and Bruno Turnheim and {Van Vuuren}, {Detlef P}",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.024",
language = "English",
journal = "Technological Forecasting and Social Change",
issn = "0040-1625",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe

AU - Van Sluisveld, Mariësse A E

AU - Hof, Andries F

AU - Carrara, Samuel

AU - Geels, Frank W

AU - Nilsson, Måns

AU - Rogge, Karoline

AU - Turnheim, Bruno

AU - Van Vuuren, Detlef P

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - A B S T R A C T In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment model-ling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. Conceptual interaction is realised through the development of two contrasting transition narratives on the role of actors in meeting the European Unions' 80% greenhouse gas emission re-duction objective for 2050. The first transition narrative outlines how large-scale innovation trajectories are driven by incumbent actors, whereas the second transition narrative assumes more 'alternative' strategies by new entrants with strong opposition to large-scale technologies. We use the multi-level perspective to draw out plausible storylines on actor positioning and momentum of change for several technological and social niche-innovations in both transition narratives. These storylines are then translated into quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. Although both developed transition pathways align with the European Union's low-carbon objective for 2050, we find that each pathway depicts a substantial departure from systems that are known to date. Future research could focus on further systematic (joint) development of operational links be-tween the two analytical approaches, as well as work on improved representation of demand-oriented solutions in techno-economic modelling.

AB - A B S T R A C T In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment model-ling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. Conceptual interaction is realised through the development of two contrasting transition narratives on the role of actors in meeting the European Unions' 80% greenhouse gas emission re-duction objective for 2050. The first transition narrative outlines how large-scale innovation trajectories are driven by incumbent actors, whereas the second transition narrative assumes more 'alternative' strategies by new entrants with strong opposition to large-scale technologies. We use the multi-level perspective to draw out plausible storylines on actor positioning and momentum of change for several technological and social niche-innovations in both transition narratives. These storylines are then translated into quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. Although both developed transition pathways align with the European Union's low-carbon objective for 2050, we find that each pathway depicts a substantial departure from systems that are known to date. Future research could focus on further systematic (joint) development of operational links be-tween the two analytical approaches, as well as work on improved representation of demand-oriented solutions in techno-economic modelling.

U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.024

DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.024

M3 - Article

JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

SN - 0040-1625

ER -