VARIOUS NATIONAL MEDIA: UK set for ‘most unpredictable election’ in decades, study finds

Press/Media: Research

Release date: 8/10/2019

Description

The UK is heading into the most unpredictable and volatile general election campaign in decades, according to a major academic study of the electorate over the past 10 years.

The British Election Study, which has assessed UK elections since 1964, has analysed the outcomes of the 2010, 2015 and 2017 polls and concluded there was “an unprecedented trend of voting volatility”, with almost half of voters changing allegiance.

Media coverage

TitleUK set for ‘most unpredictable election’ in decades, study finds
Media name/outletFinancial Times
Media typeWeb
CountryUnited Kingdom
Date8/10/19
DescriptionThe UK is heading into the most unpredictable and volatile general election campaign in decades, according to a major academic study of the electorate over the past 10 years.

The British Election Study, which has assessed UK elections since 1964, has analysed the outcomes of the 2010, 2015 and 2017 polls and concluded there was “an unprecedented trend of voting volatility”, with almost half of voters changing allegiance.
URLhttps://www.ft.com/content/3c889084-e9bf-11e9-85f4-d00e5018f061?gator_td=glYRowZeMHSXd6dzxhCGIIq%2bajhEoh4GyW8NOhJO4c%2byztGB3WSxDTrI3aciIeFPLbfYZ3TPgna%2fyV4bz0eyCUrw%2bL3cM1UgcZwSTXE%2fCmbBAtDe3%2f5UAa3IdcgvMwTdYZn5AC%2f1FnOGoDhGBcKAn%2fXo4ssLRj8xPXJjHASbIH4%3d
PersonsEdward Fieldhouse
TitleUncertainty over Brexit will make election hard to call – study
Media name/outletThe Guardian
Media typeWeb
CountryUnited Kingdom
Date8/10/19
DescriptionAn unprecedented period of volatility in party loyalties, in which almost half of voters have switched sides since 2010, and the fluidity of Brexit will make the next general election hugely difficult to call, according to a major study.

The findings from the British Election Study (BES), an ongoing survey running since the 1964 election, augmented by ongoing polling from a 30,000-person online panel, will make uneasy reading for party leaders plotting their strategy.

It shows that following decades of relative stability, voter decisions have been rocked repeatedly by a series of recent “electoral shocks” – immigration and the rise of Ukip; the 2008 crash; the 2010-15 coalition; the Scottish referendum and Brexit.
URLhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/08/uncertainty-over-brexit-will-make-election-hard-to-call-study
PersonsEdward Fieldhouse
TitleBoris Johnson warned that his push for an early election risks backfiring
Media name/outleti News
Media typeWeb
CountryUnited Kingdom
Date8/10/19
DescriptionBoris Johnson will take a huge gamble by calling a snap general election as British voters are more volatile than ever, electoral experts have warned.

The Prime Minister’s close advisers believe the Tories can get a Commons majority in the poll expected within months regardless of whether or not Brexit is delivered this month.
URLhttps://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-latest-early-election-risks-backfiring-649366
PersonsEdward Fieldhouse
TitleBrexit shock: Liberal Democrats have become ‘extremist’ says academic in election warning
Media name/outletThe Express
Media typeWeb
CountryUnited Kingdom
Date8/10/19
DescriptionBrexit has destroyed traditional party allegiances and created a nation of floating voters, academics have found. Half of the voting public switched between the 2015 and 2017 general elections, according to professors from the British Election Study.
URLhttps://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1188143/Brexit-news-lib-dems-extremist-general-election
PersonsEdward Fieldhouse